Baghdad in disarray

The blast in Baghdad, which killed more than 200 people, is the latest, and the deadliest, in a string of attacks carried out by terrorists around the world during Ramzan. The Islamic State has boastfully claimed responsibility for the attack thatoccurred in front of a Shia mosque in one of the busiest commercial areas in the heart of the Iraqi capital. The carnage comes weeks after Iraqi troops, under American air cover and assisted by Iran-trained Shia militias, defeated the IS in Fallujah, one of the first cities it had captured in Iraq in early 2014. The loss of Fallujah is a big blow to the so-called Caliphate, whose territory has been shrinking over the past year in a series of military setbacks. In fact, Iraqi troops are now preparing for the final battle in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city from where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the Caliphate two years ago. But these military setbacks haven’t done anything to blunt the ability of the IS to stage major terror attacks, as the latest violence shows. Secondly, by targeting Shias, the IS is trying to deepen Iraq’s sectarian wounds. In an online statement claiming the Baghdad bombing, the group clearly stated that it targeted a Shia gathering. In 2006, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had led a series of attacks on Shias that triggered a civil war between the two dominant communities. This sectarian tension helped the IS capture Mosul in 2014.

The attack, moreover, highlights the worsening security situation in Baghdad. Despite repeated protests and international warnings, the Iraqi government is simply not able to provide basic security to its citizens. If in other global cities terror is an irregular threat, Iraqis live dangerously in its shadow every day. The problems Iraq faces today are partly structural. It never completely recovered from the American-led invasion of 2003 which destroyed the state and threw society into anarchy. One reason the IS machinery became so strong in Iraq is that many battle-ready Saddam-era generals, who had lost their jobs after the Americans disbanded the Iraqi military, joined its ranks. But the Iraqi leadership also must bear responsibility for the current mess. If former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was viewed with suspicion by Sunnis for his sectarianism, the incumbent, Haider al-Abadi, is seen to be too incompetent to be a wartime Prime Minister. He has not been able to implement even the promised reforms, and this has virtually stalled governance, helping jihadists exploit the security gaps in the big cities. Iraq needs a stable, inclusive administration that takes care of the basic needs of its people while at the same time fighting terror. It is a tall order, but Iraq today doesn’t have the luxury of time or choice.